The 2011 AFL Grand Final looms as a clash for the ages. Collingwood and Geelong have been the best two sides all year and will meet this Saturday to decide who will claim this year’s premiership. But there is more at stake than just premiership glory. Geelong and Collingwood will be fighting for historical dominance and legacy. If Geelong lifts the cup this weekend it will be its third flag in five years and will cement their place as one of the greatest sides of all time, while Collingwood are seeking back to back premierships and the right to be called the best side of the last five years. Regardless of the outcome, this match promises to be something special as two great sides square off in what should be an epic and bruising confrontation. The Marshalltown casts its eye over the big game and tells you what to expect.

1. Which team has the biggest injury concern- Steve Johnson for Geelong or Darren Jolly and Ben Reid for Collingwood?

Brad: It wouldn’t be a Grand Final if there wasn’t injury intrigue surrounding a key player. This time around there are three key players under an injury cloud- Steve Johnson of Geelong and Collingwood’s Darren Jolly and Ben Reid.

As Geelong brushed aside a tired and physically out sized Eagles team to cruise to victory last Saturday, a hush fell over the crowd as star forward Steve Johnson was stretchered off the field with what looked like a serious knee injury. Geelong’s chances of claiming a third premiership in five years had seemingly taken a massive hit, however barely 20 minutes later, Johnson reemerged, Lazarus like, from the change rooms as the crowd roared with approval. Johnson remains a chance to play this week however it’ll be a race against time. In his favour is that Johnson has carried injuries throughout his career and still performed when it matters.

Meanwhile veteran Magpie ruckman Darren Jolly is carrying a crippling groin injury and key defender Ben Reid is nursing a hamstring injury. Reid is certain to play as the Pies are already short on key defenders but the real concern is Jolly.

Last year Jolly proved to be an inspired signing as his ruckwork helped propel Collingwood to its drought breaking premiership. In 2011 Jolly has been a shadow of his former self as he battled form and fitness. The sight of Jolly hobbling off the field in the epic clash against Hawthorn will have Magpie fans sweating all week. Put simply, as Collingwood’s only genuine ruckman, Jolly is crucial for the Pies. Back up ruckman Cameron Wood isn’t cut out for a clutch game and part timer Leigh Brown is a pinch hitter at best.

Losing Johnson is a blow for the Cats but can be covered (Geelong won the ‘09 Grand Final with a sub-par Johnson), however losing Jolly could swing the midfield battle in favour of Geelong and prove fatal for the Magpies.

Nick: Steve Johnson is a genuine match-winner on his day but like most small forwards can be prone to inconsistency. On this basis Jolly and Reid would be bigger losses for Collingwood. You could argue a case for the recruitment of Jolly being a key factor in Collingwood´s rise from a top four, to the best preformed side over the last two seasons so it would be interesting to see how they would cover for the key big man. Also a hallmark of Geelong´s recent success has been it´s spread of goalkickers, with twelve on the weekend against the Eagles. The loss of Johnson would be less significant as Geelong have others who can step up and fill the void.

2. Midfield Battle: Selwood, Bartel, Kelly, Corey vs Swan, Pendlebury, Thomas, Ball.

Who wins?

Nick: It is a rarity that a side without a star-studded midfield wins a flag and this season is going to be no different. The Cat’s have the edge in terms of age and experience, particularly when it comes to finals football but it is entirely possible that Collingwood’s youth and footspeed may give them an advantage.

It will no doubt be a great contest in the middle and it is near impossible to split the two sides in this regard. Whether or not Jolly plays will be pivotal to the midfield contest, although Wood has potential he has not played competitively for four weeks and his lack of body strength against Ottens and West should see the Cats gain the upper hand in this area. Despite this, Collingwood are well equipped to cover for inferiority in the ruck as they average more contested possessions than any other side in the league. When you partner this with their classy, creative outside ball users in Pendlebury and Thomas, Collingwood may marginally win the battle.

3. Collingwood Key Man

 Nick: The contested marking machine Travis Cloke will be critically important, particularly after his dominant final quarter against the Hawks. We all know he can clunk them better than anyone, but his biggest battle will be inside his head. If Collingwood do win, it will be because Cloke kicked the goals that needed to be kicked.

 4. Geelong Key Man

Nick: If 100% fit, you would have to say Stevie J, but it’s looking less likely that he will play. With forecasts of rain the Cats will be reliant upon wet weather specialist Jimmy Bartel to help them weather the storm. The perennially underrated Bartel forever slips under the radar, but his composure, tough as nails, no nonsense approach is exactly what is needed on the big stage.

 5. Which team had the better Preliminary final lead in?

Brad: The lead ins for both teams couldn’t be more different. Geelong dispensed

with both Hawthorn and West Coast with relative ease while Collingwood laboured to victory against those same teams to make the big dance.

Collingwood increasingly have the look of the 2008 Geelong team- a great side that smashed teams in the home and away season but ran out of gas in September and lost the unloseable. Conversely, Geelong has timed its run to perfection- carefully managing its veteran players throughout the season to ensure they’re peaking for when it matters most.

The knock on Geelong has been that they’re too old and too slow to be taken seriously as premiership contenders however the past month has reaffirmed that this veteran Geelong side remains as hungry as ever to reclaim the premiership.

Collingwood may have been able to squeak past a young West Coast side and an exhausted Hawthorn with sub par efforts but they will need to bring their A game to beat a firing Geelong and claim back to back flags.

Nick: With Collingwood collapsing over the line against the Hawks and the Cats cruising past the Eagles there will be some disparity in how the two sides prepare.

What is going to provide better mental preparation for a Grand Final? A testing four quarter effort against a tough Hawthorn outfit or a brushing aside of a brave but inferior West Coast? Both these sides have been here and done it in recent times and know exactly how to go about it. They will need no motivation to gear up for a Grand Final and the weekends results should have minimal effect on them mentally.

The question is will the battered and bruised bodies of Collingwood be able to stand up against the tough hardened Cats? Collingwood are shakey make no mistake, perhaps the longer season and a long time at the top maintaining a high pressure game plan is taking it’s toll on the Pies. Meanwhile the Cat’s form over the last four weeks gives us every reason to think that they will account for them without too much trouble.

 6. How much can be taken from the two previous clashes between the sides?

Nick:An indication of what to expect from the impending match would be the two

clubs early season encounter, which Geelong won by less than a kick. A tough, gritty low scoring affair that went right down to the wire. Many are disregarding the last match between the two sides, as it was the final round of the home and away season, Collingwood had top spot sewn up and had seemingly put the cue in the rack. The then stand in captain Scott Pendlebury put it perfectly however, stating that Collingwood were embarrassed after the loss.

“It was a final-round opportunity to test our set-ups against their quick ball movement. Instead, we went into self-preservation mode after the main change.”

Keep in mind that if Collingwood had nothing to play for, then neither did Geelong. This game suggests that Geelong have some idea how to play the Pies, how to dismantle their structures and hit the scoreboard. Self preservation mode or not, something must be read into a 96 point drubbing.

 7. Who will be the surprise packet?

Nick: Geelong, despite not having a high draft pick for years have drafted particularly well recently in Menzel, Duncan and Christensen. In Geelong’s final round thumping over Collingwood Christensen booted three goals in quick succession to help Geelong blow the game open. His pace and willingness to take the game on is not faltered by the big occasion and could prove a handful for Collingwood as they focus their attention on Selwood, Chapman and co.

 Brad: The 2011 Finals series has heralded the emergence of Tom Hawkins. His brute force and strong pack marking coupled with a new found work rate has seen the oft-maligned Tomahawk finally begin playing like the forward everyone expected him to be when he was drafted in 2007. The way in which Hawkins crashed packs, led up the ground and prowled the forward fifty against Hawthorn and then backed it up by making Eagles captain Darren Glass look second rate the following game was a sight to behold. Hawkins is entering the Grand Final in the form of his career and if he can get off the leash on Saturday he will stretch a weakened Collingwood back six to breaking point.

 8. Norm Smith Medallist

Nick: Jimmy Bartel

Brad: Joel Selwood

9. Tip:

Nick: Looking at the results of the last month it is hard to go past Geelong. While Collingwood have endured three tough games of football, including a comprehensive loss, the Cats have beaten the other top three teams comfortably, holding them in good stead to topple the Magpies this Saturday. It is arguable which of the two sides when in top form is better than the other, but that argument is somewhat irrelevant because put simply, one side is in top form and the other is not. In saying that, past results count for nothing when the ball is bounced. Neither side has conceded more than 70 points in this finals series and Collingwood pride themselves on never being out of the contest, so we can expect a hard fought, tight affair. After three quarter time however the Cats with their experience should pull away.

Nick’s tip: Geelong by 27 points.

 Brad: Last year Collingwood had a sense of destiny about them as they surged to the Premiership. This time around the same cannot be said. They’re sputtering at the wrong time of year with injuries and form issues to key players. Meanwhile Geelong have been gathering steam and momentum for the last month and with several players on the brink of retirement seem poised for one final game of fury to claim their place among the immortals.

The midfield battle will be a tight affair but with Jolly almost certain to miss out, Geelong’s September Specialist Brad Ottens could tip the balance in Geelong’s favour.

This game has no clear favourite and could come down to a moment of individual brilliance or a bit of luck but if at three quarter time the margin is two goals expect Geelong, the masters of the close finish, to will themselves over the line to victory.

Brad’s tip: Geelong by 10 points.